Rebecca Xu ’29 Sophie Liu ’29 Kelly Chan ’29
College applications bring stress and competition every single year, but the Class of 2026 will have an unexpected advantage in their college application cycle. This year, the competition pool may be significantly smaller: whether it be the decreased birth rate of the United States in 2008 or how Donald Trump has politically influenced the number of international students getting admitted into certain universities, the Class of 2026 has a statistical edge.
Photo courtesy of Kamau Kegler ’27
The Great Recession, which began in December 2007, was a severe economic decline caused by the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, leading to high unemployment rates and significant financial instability. The financially critical state people were in caused many decisions to delay having a baby, since many people were not financially stable enough to support a child. According to The Pew Research Center, “The nation’s birth rate grew each year from 2003 to 2007, and has declined since then. As will be shown later in this report, the number of births also peaked in 2007 to a record level, dipped nearly 2% in 2008, and continued to decline in 2009, according to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data. This analysis focuses on birth rate changes in 2008, the year after the national recession began. Research shows that past recessions are linked to fertility declines, but that other factors also play a role.” Since fewer children were born during the Great Recession, the Class of 2026 is smaller in size. As this class enters the admissions cycle, they will experience slightly less competition than usual.
In addition to the decline in birth rates, political factors have also shaped the college applicant pools. As Trump threatens to cut down on funding for colleges, schools have been forced to lower the number of international students they admit. Officials have even attempted to take Harvard’s right to admit international students. Policies from Trump’s administration also increased visa restrictions as well as travel bans. Thousands of international students were impacted by the Trump administration’s decision to ban travel from 19 different countries. According to the Times of India, “Thousands of international students who have secured scholarships and admission offers to study in the US are unable to begin their courses this academic year. Despite receiving acceptance letters and even visas, many are being blocked from entering the country due to the travel ban imposed by President Trump’s administration.” Colleges are now seeing significant drops in international students attending college in the United States due to these new visa restrictions and changes.
Additionally, the Trump Administration now has more federal control over admissions at Brown and Columbia. In late July, Brown University and Columbia University reached agreements with the Trump Administration that increased federal control in how the universities handle the admissions process. In return, the two Ivy League universities regained access to hundreds of millions of dollars in critical federal research funding. However, this agreement demands that Brown and Columbia report standardized testing scores to ensure academic merit, which have, in turn, become more important in the admissions process. SAT and ACT scores have now become crucial in the new admissions process that prioritizes test results over personal background. According to Forbes, “With race now barred from consideration in admissions, quantifiable metrics like SAT and ACT scores can become the primary tools for federal oversight. The shift signals a return to admissions models that emphasize test performance over individual context.” In the past, these universities focused heavily on grades, extracurriculars, essays, recommendations, and even background. Conversely, under the new system influenced by the federal government, at Columbia and Brown, SAT and ACT scores now play a bigger role, giving a clearer target for students to aim for.
Photo Courtesy of Karen Shi and Daniel Adibi
Students and counselors have mixed thoughts on how this will impact the admissions cycle. “I think the process will always be stressful, no matter what. Everyone is set up to be prepared for college applications through their high school careers, and though the numbers applying this year are smaller, I don’t think the pressure is taken off, but rather more of a desire to do well in this smaller pool of applicants,” explains Elsa Holleran ‘26. “It encourages me to apply to more schools, so with that, you also have to do more applications, so I think it increases the stress,” says Reid Lawler ’26. Ms. Cerenzia, an EA college counselor, states, she believes the process is equally competitive in different ways: “People think it’s this big drop, but it’s more of a gradual shift.” The most selective institutions are still going to be competitive, and students will still have to create a well-rounded application. When asked about his feelings after hearing about newer circumstances and seeing the Class of 2026 apply for colleges, Sean Reagle ’27 states, “ I don’t really think it has a major effect on college admissions, cause the top 25 universities are decreasing their acceptance rates. When my mom got into Columbia, the acceptance rate there was over 50%, but now it’s below 4%. So I don’t even really think the population has a huge effect, because history shows that admission rates are decreasing, so anxiety is increasing.”
Even though statistics have told us that the Class of 2026 will have a bit of an edge on the application process, it’s not entirely true. Although the number of students graduating is lower than in previous years, schools that have always had a high number of applicants will most likely still be competitive, no matter the size of the applicant pool. However, it does provide a sense of comfort, because even though students should still put in the effort, it seems to take off some of the pressure that comes with applying for colleges. But on the other hand, it also seems to add to the stress as students feel the need to apply for more colleges because they supposedly have better chances. Even with the added factor of smaller applicant pools, even juniors are nervous for themselves next year and their senior friends. “I feel apprehensive for them, since this is obviously a very stressful period of time and very busy, and just thinking about having to go through the same process next year makes me a little nervous. But of course, this is also a very exciting time for them, because they’re opening their way to new opportunities. I’m also excited for college,” says Natalie Jiang ’27. Despite taking some of the mental pressure off, applying to college is still a big deal, and will never be easy, no matter the varying circumstances from year to year.
Statistically proven, the college admissions process is relatively less competitive due to the smaller applicant pool. But does it really make the admissions process easier, with increasingly unattainable standards, thousands of choices, and emphasis on standardized testing? Regardless of the ever-changing factors surrounding admissions, it is exceedingly important to recognize that although outcomes are uncertain, they certainly do not define a student’s worth.
