Molly Lo ’27
People in at least sixty countries will go to the polls in 2024, a major year for elections worldwide. Some of these countries, including Bangladesh, Taiwan, Pakistan, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Belgium, the U.S., the United Kingdom, and South Africa, are among the most populous in the world. According to The Economist, “There will be more than 70 elections in 2024 in countries that are home to around 4.2bn people—for the first time, more than half of the global population.” The results of these elections will have significant consequences on global issues including economic stability, human rights, peace, and the future of democratic institutions and norms.
The Taiwanese presidential election was held this past January. The winner, Lai Ching-te, a member of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), ran against Hou Tou-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Eli Engelman ’25, President of the Political Solutions Club, stated, “This result was a massive win for democracy and American interests. On the other side of the Taiwan Strait, there had been a big push for the Kuopmintang, and the DPP’s victory shows Taiwan’s resistance to the CCP.” President Lai proclaimed, “Taiwan is telling the whole world that between democracy and authoritarianism, we chose to stand on the side of democracy.”
On February 8, Pakistan held general elections, the most important being the replacement of jailed Prime Minister, Imran Khan. Khan, who has been barred from running in this election, is charged with taking bribes and leaking state secrets. Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League has the support of much of the military and the judiciary. Bilawal Bhutto-Zardary of the Pakistan People’s Party has run on a platform of increased public spending and wage increases for the average Pakistani. The BBC reported, “Fourteen National Assembly seats are yet to be determined – all in the vast and sparsely-populated Balochistan province – but both Mr. Khan and Mr. Sharif say they have won.” The unclear result, coupled with concerns over the validity of the vote, show that Pakistan still has a long way to go to become a free and fair democracy. Looking ahead, the winner will face problems ranging from Pakistan’s debt to its high inflation rate to further attacks from Iran.
India’s frontrunner for the prime minister election in April or May 2024 is the current prime minister, Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Modi’s approval rates are very high, indicative of the rise of Hindu nationalism. According to Al Jazeera, Modi and the BJP have jailed rivals and limited opportunity for political debate. Silenced opposition in India and Pakistan candidates highlight South Asia’s problems with democracy, but significant progress in global freedom has been made to get to a point where elections are a norm in the region.
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) is facing corruption allegations and decreasing support due to a very slow-growing economy. GDP per capita is roughly the same today as it was in 2006. The results of the 2023 elections will determine the country’s economic policies. Some of the parties contesting the election support the nationalization of private enterprise and redistribution of land, 72% of which is still owned by the white minority population.
Most importantly, in the United States, the presidency, one-third of senators, and all representatives will be decided on November 5, 2024. The two major parties are still holding primary votes in every state, but it is likely that the race will be a rematch of the 2020 election: Donald Trump running against Joe Biden. The Democratic party favors climate action, racial equity, union-focused industrial development, increased taxes on the richest Americans, and a traditional alliance-based global order. The Republican party under Donald Trump advocates increased border control measures, elimination of renewable subsidies, high tariffs, unilateral “America first” foreign policy actions, and the elimination of civil service protections. Many EA students will participate in this vote and decide what they would like America to look like in the next four years.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the quality of democracy across the world has been diminishing, even if the quantity of democratic states has been increasing. In recent years, support has increased for politicians who enacted illiberal policies like Geert Wilders of the Netherlands and Viktor Orbán of Hungary. On the other hand, results in Taiwan give hope for freedom around the world. With the massive number of elections and the fragility of the global order, 2024 elections are going to be pivotal in deciding the future of democracy—and the world.