Nick Horbowy ’17 had the opportunity to travel to Cuba with the Jterm , and wrote about his observations about Cuba and the changing relations with America regarding President Trump.
Nick Horbowy ’17: U.S. policy towards Cuba has varied considerably over the past decades, largely depending on the contemporary occupant of the oval office. Relations have been tense and limited since the advent of Cuban communism, but the severity of sanctions and restrictions has ebbed and flowed, with recent actions by President Obama constituting a major shift toward normalized relations. As is customary, the new presidency will almost certainly alter Cuban relations, but the question lies in whether President Donald Trump will extend his pro-business mindset into the presidency and allow relations to normalize, or if he will adhere to the image of the strong-man republican politician he has become and rescind the legislation made by Obama.
In his statements regarding the issue, Trump has spoken vaguely. At a campaign event, Trump stated, “The next president can reverse [Obama’s executive orders regarding Cuba], and that I will do unless the Castro regime meets our demands.” Trump’s demands, however, are yet to be specified.
While it is difficult to characterize Trump’s usually eclectic foreign policy positions into an accepted paradigm, most critics define Trump as a realist. Accordingly, Trump will most likely act to support America’s national interest with little regard for the well-being of Cuba or its people, unless these factors affect the well-being of America. With this in mind, Trump should act to normalize relations further.
In the twenty-first century, Communist Cuba poses little national security threat to the United States. Sanctioning the Castro regime in hopes of governmental change has been undeniably ineffective, and realist foreign policy asserts that failed tactics should not be pursued further, regardless of theoretical or moral appeals. Opening relations with Cuba provides Americans the double benefit of enhanced economic opportunities in trade and travel, while also exposing Cuba to a capitalist system with the hope of swaying public opinion away from communism. America has little to lose by relaxing tensions, save for the shame of pursuing a fruitless policy for so long. A realist would not hesitate to improve America’s international standing if the only matter at risk was embarrassment.
While normalizing relations would fit with Trump’s past as a business man, adhere to his realist foreign policy, and benefit the populist base that voted him into office, the fact remains that Trump is unpredictable. Consequently, Cubans themselves have varying emotions as the Trump presidency comes into power. Some are hopeful, citing Trump’s realism but especially his history in business and development as evidence that he will seek to expand the opportunities available to Americans in Cuba. Interestingly, even among those who believe that Trump will normalize relations further, there is a school of thought that increased tourism is detrimental to Cuba, for the influx of money into the service industry will entice intellectuals away from occupations requiring higher levels of expertise. They fear that the result will be a less educated Cuba which will be left behind as the world continues to advance in scientific and technological pursuits, while Cuba’s scientists are waiting tables. Others believe that Trump will yield to a strong-man persona over a business oriented leader, and take a hard line on communism in North America by retightening relations back to cold-war standards.
In the wake of the progressive Obama presidency and a wave of American public opinion supporting normalized relations, Cubans have more reasons to be hopeful for the future than fearful. Trump has made few promises about Cuba, and all that is certain is that he will seek to make a better deal than Obama did. Given his personal values and foreign policy views, it is difficult to imagine that the better deal he speaks of will involve reduced economic and travel opportunities for Americans, and it certainly should not.